Kindle Ummm…limited

 

The world runs on algorithms. I used to think that these were some dope beats being dropped by Al Gore. It turns out that the truth is far more complex and mystifying (and way less dope*).

At the beginning of the year, I went on a quest. It involved no rings, no hero’s journey, no treasure and a disappointing lack of dragons.

It did however involve asking Googling a really, really stupid question. “How many books have I sold based on my Amazon sales rank?”

This question is ranked #2 of the most commonly asked questions by authors (#1 is of course, “Hey buddy, can you buy me a drink?”)

There are some essential facts that you need to understand about Amazon Sales Ranks.

  1. They are calculated using a proprietary algorithm that does what all good algorithms do (not make you want to dance) – it calculates a whole shit load of data and produces a result.
  2. An algorithm is a procedure for solving a mathematical problem (as of finding the greatest common divisor) in a finite number of steps that frequently involves repetition of an operation; broadly : a step-by-step procedure for solving a problem or accomplishing some end especially by a computer a search
  3. The result will have no relevance or bearing on reality.
  4. Approximately 100,000 people have worked out how to calculate the relationship to your sales rank on Amazon.com and your actual number of books sold.
  5. None of these people should be trusted to use a toilet properly without adult supervision.

There was a time, which future historians will call, BKU (Before Kindle Unlimited) aka, The Good Old Days, and it will differ from the current era, FYAB (Fuck You Amazon Bastards) aka, After Kindle Unlimited.

On the surface, Kindle Unlimited is a great idea. Amazon puts millions of dollars in a pot. Everyone who signs up their books to Kindle Unlimited gets a paid a share based on number of pages read. Consumers pay to access the service each month and can then download ebooks to read each month for no further cost.

Of course it took exactly eleven minutes and thirty-eight seconds for some people to work out how to game the system and make a complete farce of the payments authors should receive.

Amazon to date, doesn’t care cares deeply. Jeff Bezos’ minions have acknowledged this issue and say they are working on resolving it… just how – is less clear.

Of course the only way to have any insight on how your Amazon sales rank impacts your writing income, is to record your own data.

My advice in all cases is to not do something optimistic, like take out a loan with your local Russian Mafia boss based on your estimated income from your next quarterly royalty payment. Unless you are indifferent to having kneecaps.

AmazonSalesRank_01042017_30062017

Figure 1. The Amazon Sales Rank for one of my books from 1 April – 30 June 2017.

 

AmazonSalesRank_June2017

Figure 2. The same book but focused on that higher sales rank period – of June 2017

 

The number recorded in my spread sheet is the ‘Daily Sales Rank’ figure that Amazon populates its Author Central graph with.

Next important thing to note: The Amazon graph shows your book’s sales rank at a specific point in time in each 24 hour period. That is 12:00 AM PST

It is NOT an average of your sales rank over a 24 hour period. It’s the output of the algorithm applied which includes factors like how many books similar to yours sold in the last hour, and in the last 24 hours and the current moon phase and which dog won the 3rd race of the day at the Wanganui Greyhound Racing Club track on the 3rd Wednesday of the month, except when that day falls on an odd number.

Exactly how many books you sold in the last 24 hours is the kind of data that the algorithm probably sneers at. I mean seriously? What possible relevance would that information have to anything?

I do wonder if Amazon even knows. Or if they just make shit up to keep people confused and the entire thing is a giant Ponzi scheme with the same books being sold to new writer’s friends and family.

The Amazon sales rank data will tell you that ‘Your book is currently ranked X out over 1,000,000 books on Amazon.com.’ That number is out by a factor of at least 10. Again, no one knows exactly how many ebooks are on Amazon’s catalogue – but it’s closer to 13 million than 1 million.

The other thing to remember is that most of the seers who claim that, ‘If your sales rank is X your number of daily books sold is between Y and Z,’ are not taking into account the Kindle Unlimited pages read.

Amazon now includes this statistic in your sales ranking. So if you (like me) see a book ranking consistently in the top 10,000 books out of ALL of Amazon. You sigh. It doesn’t mean you’re selling 100 books a day (which would mean an income of around $100/day). It means that some thousands of pages are being read per day which given the way the Kindle Unlimited prize pool is being looted by bots and scammers, means I’m making more like 10 cents a day.

There are six year olds making sneakers in sweatshops who would refuse to work for that rate.

Amazon provides this happy scenario on their author information page for Kindle Unlimited.

For example, here’s how we’d calculate royalty payout if $10 million in funds were available in a given month with 100 million total pages read (Note: Actual payouts vary and may be less; check your Prior Month’s Royalty Report to see your earnings):

  • Author with a 100 page book that was borrowed and read completely 100 times would earn $1,000 ($10 million multiplied by 10,000 pages for this author divided by 100,000,000 total pages).

  • Author of a 200 page book that was borrowed and read completely 100 times would earn $2,000 ($10 million multiplied by 20,000 pages for this author divided by 100,000,000 total pages).

  • Author of a 200 page book that was borrowed 100 times but only read halfway through on average would earn $1,000 ($10 million multiplied by 10,000 pages for this author divided by 100,000,000 total pages)

So given their fund for the last few months has been $18 Million dollars, this seems like a sweet deal right?

Yeah, nah.

Based on a different book of mine, with Kindle Unlimited pages read from October 2016 – December 2016: total pages read: 48580.

Total royalty payment for this stream: $101.50

Which suggests (based on the shiny example given by Amazon) that there are a shit load more than 100 million total page reads going on (see earlier commentary about bots and scammers). 3 of those titles have been ranked in the top 20,000 in the last six years. Okay, technically it has been the last 8 months and that is entirely due to one publisher who has a marketing plan that works. I just provide the books and they sell them.

What’s the answer?

The answer is the same as it has always been. I have 24 ebook titles on Amazon, including anthologies that I have a story in.

 

    1. Don’t give up your day job – unless your day job is writing more books. Then really don’t give it up.
    2. Write more books.
    3. Write more books

 

 

 

* Feel free to insert an appropriate word instead of ‘dope’ to match the current nomenclature of your youth culture dialogue.

BETA NOT

BETA THAN YOU

BETA ROUND THE BUSH

BETA THE DEVIL YOU KNOW

BETA, MISTREATA

BETA NOT

For a blog post on beta readers it seems appropriate to have a range of options for the title. It’s the sort of thing that a beta reader might have an opinion on.

Which is the entire crux [nub, heart, essence, most important point, central point, main point, essential part, core, centre, nucleus, kernel, bottom line] of beta readers.  Opinions.

Opinions are what beta readers provide. Somewhat humorously there are people who charge for this service. I don’t know what they offer that unpaid beta readers don’t provide, because I have never felt the urge to pay anyone for a second opinion (unless they are a doctor and that rash is just not healing).

Opinions are the core of what beta readers provide – hence the collective noun, an Asshole of Beta Readers.

Editors, formatters, book cover designers, these are services I expect to pay for if I am self-publishing (or the publisher will pay for). But why not beta reading?

It comes down to what I am getting for my money; expertise is the main thing.

I expect that an editor, a cover designer, or anyone else being paid for a service in relation to a book, is doing something that I cannot do myself. More importantly, I expect that they will add value to the project. They will do some sorcery with Photoshop. They understand the subtle nuances of grammar and know their prepositions from their propositions. They can make a book layout work in any device.

These are all things that are worthy of payment due to expertise and a saleable service.

Beta readers on the other hand read books and give opinions. I’ve had beta readers say the kinds of things about my books that I would normally expect from my mum (not, “Oh God, you gave me nightmares!”) but the “I’m very proud of you, well done!” variety of response.

I’ve had other beta readers who completely missed the point of a key element of a character. Things that were pretty clearly laid out and while I could have included a handy diagram and bullet point list – to really make it clear, this writing thing is about suggestion, implication and not giving all the details because when a reader reads, they put their own perception goggles on and view the story through their filters.

The result is I am left wondering if they were on the kind of medication that has a warning on the label advising you not to operate machinery, drive or beta read while under its effects.

Because their output is opinions, beta readers are not objective. An editor may not give a monkey’s pancreas that your main character is a gender-fluid, nihilist philosopher alien who is in love with a trombone. There are simply there to make sure you make words good.

A beta reader will either enjoy the story or they will reject it because it doesn’t fit with their gender-static, life-affirming, brass instrument phobic world view.

Mostly, I don’t bother with beta readers. Sometimes a publisher will use them, which is their prerogative. The bit that grates like bone dust in my synovial fluid, is when the opinion of a beta reader is taken as so important that the story must be changed to change the bits that they did not like.

On the flipside of this is the creepy reader who reads a horror novel and sends you fan mail about an implied act of sexual assault from a scene in the book. While you wrote it as a ‘most-goddamned-awful-thing-I-can-imagine’ they write to tell you about how much they liked it. I mean, really liked it.

At least the creepy fan with a rape fantasy paid to read the book.

Tankbread 4: Black Snow

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Tankbread 4: Black Snow

Tomorrow the fourth and final book in the Tankbread series is released by Permuted Press.

I was reminded of this through the power of Google Alerts. Which (as the name suggests) alert you when key words appear on the Internet.

I have alerts for the usual key words, Paul Mannering, Tankbread, Engines of Empathy, Cross-dressing Gnomes with bangle fetishes.

The most common alert I get is for Tankbread, and it’s always a link to the latest site offering pirated copies of the book. Which is why I was reminded by Google Alerts that Tankbread 4: Black Snow is out tomorrow.

The pirate sites have it on offer already – or at least they have the page waiting for it to be on offer tomorrow. You can download it in mobi or PDF format.

If you do, you can also go and fuck yourself with a rusty chainsaw.

There have been screeds written on the issue of online piracy. You can probably download all the literature for free from pirate sites.

It’s a difficult issue – you can’t control it. You can’t stop it. You also can’t ignore it.

Responses from content creators (the Millennial term for people who make stuff that people click on to generate advertising revenue for websites) ranges from Pulp Fiction style Biblical rage (And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger…) to the rather quaint idea that all information should be free.

Some will say, “They weren’t going to buy it anyway.”

I’m not going to buy a new Mercedes either, but it doesn’t give me the right to fucking steal one from the local European car dealership.

Others will say, “It’s not really stealing, because it’s copying.”

Yes, it is copying – but I get paid for the thousands of hours I put into writing these books by selling copies. Every time you acquire a copy without paying for it – I don’t get my return on the investment. If you don’t want to buy a copy, don’t fucking read it.

This is like raging at the ocean because a wave came up the beach and made your shoes wet. It doesn’t change anything and just leaves you feeling frustrated, powerless, with wet shoes.

Publishers have to take the losses into account – which is nearly impossible because (the downloaders weren’t going to buy it anyway) so you can’t easily put a value on the lost income.

The only way to be sure would be to say, “If offered the choice, would you buy this book or download it from a pirate site?”

Anyone who says yes to the pirate download, you can quote Ezekiel at them and eat their burger.

How You Do It

There was a guy I used to know, a fellow nursing student, who wore a T-shirt that said:

Nookie; Just Did It.

I think he graduated.

I’ve been working with an established Australian publisher to formulate a deal for writing some books. Severed Press expressed interest in hearing proposals, so I wrote a bunch of ideas based on current, unpublished original WIP’s I have.

They rejected all of them except one that they wanted to change quite a bit. Further discussion gave more clarity around what for them would be a sweet spot in my creative contributions to their publishing empire.

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